Hasht-e-Subh Recently, the Middle East and South Asia have witnessed alliances among terrorist groups aimed at overthrowing governments. In these cases, Islamist extremist groups have formed transnational coalitions, enabling them to topple national governments.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria achieved through the collaboration of numerous radical, extremist, and terrorist groups, serves as a prominent example of these developments. This incident bears striking similarities to the fall of Afghanistan’s government by the Taliban.
Analyzing these two events reveals a dangerous pattern for extremist groups: uniting across national borders, despite differing long-term goals, to form short-term alliances and exploit the structural weaknesses of states to achieve their objectives.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban effectively forged an informal alliance with groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Al-Qaeda, Sipah-e-Sahaba, the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, and extremist groups from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Despite significant ideological, interest-based, and national differences, these groups managed to unite against Afghanistan’s legitimate government. The Taliban leveraged this alliance by bringing in foreign fighters and capitalizing on security gaps and public dissatisfaction. This strategy not only facilitated their victory but also turned them into a source of inspiration for other extremist groups.
The Taliban, recognizing their debt to these terrorist groups, have since provided them with sanctuary and support in Afghanistan. The widespread presence of various terrorist organizations, including Al-Qaeda, TTP, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, underscores this dynamic.
Numerous credible reports, including those from international organizations like the United Nations, have documented the Taliban’s support for these terrorist groups, highlighting their role in assisting the Taliban during their conflict with the Afghan government.
In Syria, Islamist extremist groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda, and Ahrar al-Sham employed similar tactics. Despite differing long-term objectives, these groups successfully united in the short term to overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s government. Like the Taliban, they utilized transnational networks to recruit fighters from across the Muslim world. Interestingly, some of these fighters were sent from Afghanistan to Syria, a fact documented in multiple reports.
Numerous videos have surfaced on social media, showing individuals who traveled from Pakistan and Afghanistan to Syria to fight against Assad’s government. These fighters do not hide their identities and often speak Pashto in the videos.
In some Syrian regions, even the Taliban flag has been raised, highlighting the ideological support and proximity between the Taliban and these alliances of terrorist groups.
This connection was not limited to the battlefield. Inside Afghanistan, the Taliban celebrated the fall of Assad’s government in provinces like Nangarhar, Paktia, Paktika, Logar, and Laghman. These celebrations were a clear signal of the Taliban’s ideological solidarity with other Islamist extremist groups.
Although the Taliban’s allied groups did not directly engage in the war against the Syrian government, the similarities in their approaches to forming alliances, seizing strategic regions, and toppling governments cannot be coincidental.
The fall of governments through such alliances has profound and far-reaching consequences. In Afghanistan, this event has led to the strengthening of extremism, political instability, and an exacerbation of the humanitarian crisis. This extremism has endangered countless lives and targeted the future of the entire society. The closure of schools and universities to women, along with their exclusion from the right to work and freedom of movement, represents part of the religious extremism imposed in Afghanistan after the Taliban’s takeover.
Moreover, the group has targeted specific ethnic groups within Afghanistan, subjecting them to discrimination and oppression solely based on their ethnic identity. On another front, military resistance against the Taliban continues to be active, with war flames erupting across the country. Just last night, the Freedom Front carried out three attacks in Kapisa, Kabul, and Herat, resulting in over 10 casualties, including deaths and injuries. Similarly, the National Resistance Front launched two attacks in Kabul and Faryab.
This ongoing conflict creates a terrifying uncertainty about the country’s future, leaving no room for accurate predictions. The situation has distanced society from stability and stripped citizens of the ability to plan their lives.
The persistence of such turmoil highlights the dire repercussions of governance overthrown by extremist coalitions and their ripple effects on the societal fabric.
In Syria, however, the collapse of the government is likely to lead to a widespread civil war. Although the geographical, social, and political conditions of Syria and Afghanistan differ, the consequences of their respective events highlight the shared threat of transnational terrorism. In Syria, the likelihood of sectarian conflict igniting is particularly high.
Rebel forces opposing Assad’s government openly referred to killing Shias and labeled them as “Rafidis” in videos released during their attacks. Now that they hold power and are fueled by religious extremism, they are unlikely to refrain from persecuting Shias a development that will inevitably spark sectarian warfare in a country long managed under secular dictatorial rule.
Moreover, these events have provided a dangerous model for other terrorist groups. The success of the Taliban in Afghanistan and extremist groups in Syria has demonstrated that short-term and flexible alliances can serve as effective tools for achieving the political and military objectives of terrorist and extremist organizations.
This model is alarmingly easy to replicate, particularly in regions where governments are weak or dysfunctional.
Therefore, the international community must remain vigilant about the threat posed by this model. Terrorist groups not only undermine the internal stability of nations but also risk escalating regional and global crises. Preventing the recurrence of such scenarios requires robust international cooperation.
Strengthening security structures, combating the financial sources of terrorism, and exerting pressure on terrorist groups rather than the so-called “engagement” with the Taliban in Afghanistan over the past three years can constrain these groups. Similarly, states that use terrorist organizations as tools for achieving short-term strategic objectives must face international pressure.
Ultimately, terrorist groups have adopted new warfare tactics that demand updated strategies and perspectives. The outdated definitions of terrorism are insufficient for addressing the challenges posed by emerging terrorist coalitions. A deeper understanding of terrorist networks and their available resources enhances the capability to combat them effectively.
You can read the Persian version of this analysis here:
ایتلافهای تروریستی؛ سقوط حکومتها و الگوبرداری اسلامگرایان افراطی | روزنامه ۸صبح