Hasht-e-Subh The anti-Taliban sphere is the most fragmented area in the political landscape of Afghanistan. This sphere is highly heterogeneous and has significantly differing demands. Ethnicity and the nature of the regime are the most important and obvious reasons for this fragmentation, while there are also many important hidden reasons behind this disunity, such as the selfishness and excessive ambitions among political leaders and the unfounded claims of “majority and minority” that hinder mutual acceptance. Within this sphere, some consider the debate about the nature of the regime to be a political taboo or fundamentally unworthy of discussion. However, others insist that a centralized political order does not yield results and that power must be distributed horizontally so that people have a greater role and share in shaping their destiny. A large segment of them has now gathered around the topic of a federal system. Opponents of this concept, however, view decentralization of power as a form of fragmentation of the country and therefore consider it unworthy of discussion. Issues such as ethnicity and the selfishness of politicians are also highly significant, and so far, Afghan society and the anti-Taliban sphere have not been able to overcome these barriers to unite against the Taliban. Now that three years have passed since the Taliban’s reassertion of control over the country, we can gradually observe signs of unity in this sphere.
The Vienna Conference is the most important platform that the anti-Taliban sphere has established in the past three years. This series of meetings, which initially had a smaller scope, has now expanded significantly and brought together most politicians from the anti-Taliban sphere, including supporters of negotiations with the Taliban and anti-Taliban military factions. In the first two years, this platform could not attract much attention, but it continued its work and broadened its base to the extent that it now draws both domestic and international attention. For this reason, the U.S. Congress has recently called for support for this platform. Meanwhile, within Afghanistan, some attention is gradually being drawn to the Vienna Conference; however, the Taliban have taken this conference more seriously than anyone else within the country. The Taliban, who ignored their opponents’ efforts to humiliate them and did not respond to calls for negotiation and the establishment of an inclusive government, had a similar attitude towards the Vienna Conference. Nevertheless, when the fourth Vienna meeting was held, they could not remain indifferent and ignore it. They were compelled to react, and Zabihullah Mujahid, the spokesperson for the group, referred to the participants of the Vienna Conference as a “confused group.” The mere fact that the Taliban responded to this conference signifies that, despite their attempts to dismiss such efforts, they can no longer ignore them.
The primary factor that has brought this fragmented and disorganized sphere closer to unity—albeit still insufficient unity—is the pressures exerted by the Taliban on the people of Afghanistan, particularly on the families of politicians, as well as on women and specific ethnic groups. No one or group, apart from the Taliban themselves, can unify this sphere.
Some members of this sphere had recently fallen for the narrative of a “changed Taliban” and hoped that one day it would be possible to negotiate with this group and establish a more humane government; however, forced displacements, systematic killings, widespread human rights violations, the commission of war crimes, and recently, the group’s enforcement of its moral policing laws have destroyed the hopes of this segment as well. Now that they have lost hope for reform and change within the Taliban, they no longer expect an agreement with this group and have moved closer to the anti-Taliban sphere.
Therefore, no country, group, or factor other than the Taliban themselves has been able to unify their opponents, nor have they succeeded in doing so in the past. While a long road lies ahead for the anti-Taliban sphere to achieve complete unity, signs of it are beginning to emerge.
On the other hand, the anti-Taliban sphere, especially those who are not actively engaged in the heat of battle, are gradually attempting to engage in practical political activities. The most significant step taken so far in this regard, apart from meetings held outside the country, is the proposal to establish a government in exile. So far, Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum, leader of the National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan, has spoken about the necessity of forming a government in exile, and Ahmad Massoud, leader of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, has also stated that they are moving towards establishing a government in exile. The National Freedom Party of Afghanistan, led by Rahmatullah Nabil, has also issued a statement supporting the formation of a government in exile. It seems that members of the High Council for the Rescue of Afghanistan will also support this proposal, with Marshal Dostum being one of the prominent members of this council. However, the remaining members of this council have not yet taken a stance, but it appears that the establishment of a government in exile is now a serious option for them as well. Therefore, if the anti-Taliban sphere succeeds in forming a government in exile, it will create another credible political address alongside the Vienna platform that can engage both the international community and the people of Afghanistan. On the other hand, the main factor that has caused the world to turn away from the anti-Taliban sphere is the absence of an alternative to the Taliban, and with the establishment of a government in exile, this excuse will also be eliminated.
Despite all these points, it must be said that there is still a long way to go for the complete unification of the anti-Taliban sphere, and full unity may even be unattainable. However, if relative unity is achieved and strengthened, resulting in the formation of a government in exile, it could exert considerable pressure on the Taliban and restore hope to society. Of course, this is contingent upon the absence of repeat figures with dark records at the helm of the government in exile.